Polymarket has proven resilient in maintaining its user base even after the U.S. election season, showing solid growth and activity post-election. Despite the drop in election-related betting, data shows that the platform is far from losing its relevance.
Steady Performance Post-Election
Polymarket’s performance after the U.S. election has remained robust, contrary to concerns that user activity would diminish. After Election Day, open interest, a measure of market engagement, declined temporarily but quickly recovered, reaching $115 million by November 30. This recovery indicates that Polymarket is maintaining its user interest beyond election-related markets, despite the natural drop in election bets.
While open interest peaked just above $475 million on Election Day, the platform saw a decrease to around $93 million in mid-November. However, this figure bounced back, signaling healthy long-term activity. Additionally, daily volumes stabilized in the mid- to high-eight-figure range, still higher than pre-election numbers from September.
Active Users and Trading Patterns
Polymarket’s active user base continues to show strong participation. The platform currently has around 30,000 to 35,000 active wallets, which is not far from the numbers observed leading up to the election. Despite the overall dip in trading volume, this consistent level of user engagement suggests that Polymarket still holds the interest of a dedicated group of traders.
Interestingly, most bets placed on the platform remain under $100, with only a small percentage (5.8%) exceeding $1,000. This shows that Polymarket continues to attract both casual and serious traders, without over-relying on large transactions from a few high-stakes bettors.
Legal and Regulatory Uncertainty
While Polymarket’s market performance remains strong, the platform faces ongoing regulatory challenges. Legal hurdles persist, but there is hope within the community that a crypto-friendly regulatory environment may emerge, particularly under future government leadership. If these issues are resolved, Polymarket’s growth could be further solidified in the prediction market space.
Unexpected Pardon: A Market Surprise
One of the most notable recent events was the surprise pardon granted to Hunter Biden, which caught Polymarket traders off guard. Before the announcement, the odds of such a pardon were low, with contracts trading at around 28-30 cents. Once the White House confirmed the pardon, these contracts surged to 100%, paying out $1 per share. This unexpected outcome demonstrates how quickly prediction markets can shift when new, impactful information emerges.
Apology in the Prediction Market Space
In another recent development, Antonio Brown, a former NFL player, issued an apology for insulting Shayne Coplan, Polymarket’s founder, after being prompted by Kalshi, a competitor. This apology sheds light on the intense dynamics within the prediction market industry, where disputes can escalate but are also quickly resolved, especially when public figures are involved.
